Why this morning
Strong S tailwind + heavy BirdCast traffic last night suggests birds bypassed for Canada — photo yield may lag list diversity. WSW aloft (253°/17mph) wind carried migrants north overnight; 3.67M birds crossed Cuyahoga — huge (100th percentile this spring). Dry-ish dawn (7-16% PoP); no fallout-trigger precip, so birds settle into cover by their own clock. Phenology is dead-center for Blackpoll, Northern Waterthrush, Wilson's, Magnolia warblers (peak-week composition). Expect 50-70 species; comparable to Thu 5/7 (7.63). Expected high migration tonight — 621k birds forecast (97th percentile, top-4 night of season); tomorrow's score may rise.
Signals
Likely targets · top 6 by opportunity
Recent rarities · 5 km radius · last 14 days
Loading rarities…
Conditions
Expected species this morning: 50–70 · score band definitely go.
Tomorrow · 2026-05-17
Estimated #5 of 47 spring 2026 mornings · top 10% (model)
Exact 7.88 · amp +0.30 · hotspot +0.50
Season rank
Estimated #5 best morning of spring 2026 (of 47 days scored, model rank). Closest analog (model): Thu 5/7 (7.6).