rubric

How tomorrow’s score gets built and what happens if you slide the dials. Final score = sum of (weight × factor score), plus amplifier bonuses, capped at 10.

explorer

sandbox

target date 2026-05-17 · weight tweaks stay in this browser

original final

8.71

raw 8.21 + amp +0.50

new final (no change)

8.71

raw 8.21 · Σweights 1.00

migration_intensityscore 9.00 / 10
BirdCast Cuyahoga=HIGH
0.10
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.10 final0.50
default 0.10
wind_regimescore 4.46 / 10
overnight avg 249° / 13.7 mph (850mb)
0.10
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.10 final0.50
default 0.10
precipitation_patternscore 6.50 / 10
overnight 0.0mm / dawn 0.0mm
0.10
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.10 final0.50
default 0.10
ebird_recent_activityscore 10.00 / 10
n=117
0.05
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.05 final0.50
default 0.05
acoustic_recent_activityscore 10.00 / 10
BirdWeather 135 sp/24h, 55 overnight NFCs
0.10
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.10 final0.50
default 0.10
seasonal_phenologyscore 8.64 / 10
date 2026-05-17
0.45
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.45 final0.50
default 0.45
barometric_pressure_trendscore 6.50 / 10
strong air-mass transition (10°F swing)
0.05
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.05 final0.50
default 0.05
time_window_qualityscore 10.00 / 10
assume arrive by 05:03
0.05
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.05 final0.50
default 0.05
wind_shift_6h_grounderscore 0.00 / 10
insufficient KCLE history (n=0)
0.00
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.00 final0.50
default 0.00

contribution waterfallweight × score

migration_intensity0.10 × 9.00
0.90
wind_regime0.10 × 4.46
0.45
precipitation_pattern0.10 × 6.50
0.65
ebird_recent_activity0.05 × 10.00
0.50
acoustic_recent_activity0.10 × 10.00
1.00
seasonal_phenology0.45 × 8.64
3.89
barometric_pressure_trend0.05 × 6.50
0.33
time_window_quality0.05 × 10.00
0.50
wind_shift_6h_grounder0.00 × 0.00
0.00
amplifier bonusvetoes / amplifiers
+0.50

final

raw 8.218.71

estimated ablations

tap to apply

Estimated single-factor counterfactuals against tomorrow’s live report. Numbers below each tile are the synthetic final and its delta vs the live model.

historical analogs

nearest by final score

tomorrow

2026-05-04Δ 0.23
SSW 14mph0h / 0.0mm92%
8.94no survey
2026-05-11Δ 0.29
SSW 4mph0h / 0.0mm32%
8.42no survey
2026-05-03Δ 0.36
SW 9mph0h / 0.0mm96%
8.35no survey

7-factor profile sparklines, left-to-right: migration, wind, precip, ebird, phenology, pressure, time-window. Tomorrow at top in muted.

loading tomorrow’s factor scores…

calibration scatter

n = 79 surveyed days

Pearson r = +0.707 over 79 surveyed days. Regression slope = 10.49 species per +1.0 final. 38days landed above the line — the model under-rated them.

what each factor means

migration_intensity
BirdCast nightly migration density over Cuyahoga. Higher means more birds aloft last night.
wind_regime
Overnight and dawn wind direction and speed. S/SW tailwinds with a morning shift produce grounding events.
precipitation_pattern
Dawn precip probability and overnight rain. Light rain or a passing front concentrates birds.
ebird_recent_activity
Recent eBird reports at the hotspot. Confirms birds are present, not just predicted.
seasonal_phenology
Calendar weight for the species peaking now. Peak warbler weeks score 10, off-season ~2.
barometric_pressure_trend
Falling pressure means an approaching front and grounding. Rising means clear conditions and less drop-down.
time_window_quality
Sunrise and civil twilight quality. Daylight overlap with the productive dawn-chorus window.

explorer

sandbox

target date 2026-05-17 · weight tweaks stay in this browser

original final

8.71

raw 8.21 + amp +0.50

new final (no change)

8.71

raw 8.21 · Σweights 1.00

migration_intensityscore 9.00 / 10
BirdCast Cuyahoga=HIGH
0.10
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.10 final0.50
default 0.10
wind_regimescore 4.46 / 10
overnight avg 249° / 13.7 mph (850mb)
0.10
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.10 final0.50
default 0.10
precipitation_patternscore 6.50 / 10
overnight 0.0mm / dawn 0.0mm
0.10
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.10 final0.50
default 0.10
ebird_recent_activityscore 10.00 / 10
n=117
0.05
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.05 final0.50
default 0.05
acoustic_recent_activityscore 10.00 / 10
BirdWeather 135 sp/24h, 55 overnight NFCs
0.10
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.10 final0.50
default 0.10
seasonal_phenologyscore 8.64 / 10
date 2026-05-17
0.45
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.45 final0.50
default 0.45
barometric_pressure_trendscore 6.50 / 10
strong air-mass transition (10°F swing)
0.05
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.05 final0.50
default 0.05
time_window_qualityscore 10.00 / 10
assume arrive by 05:03
0.05
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.05 final0.50
default 0.05
wind_shift_6h_grounderscore 0.00 / 10
insufficient KCLE history (n=0)
0.00
0.00+1.0 score ⇒ +0.00 final0.50
default 0.00

contribution waterfallweight × score

migration_intensity0.10 × 9.00
0.90
wind_regime0.10 × 4.46
0.45
precipitation_pattern0.10 × 6.50
0.65
ebird_recent_activity0.05 × 10.00
0.50
acoustic_recent_activity0.10 × 10.00
1.00
seasonal_phenology0.45 × 8.64
3.89
barometric_pressure_trend0.05 × 6.50
0.33
time_window_quality0.05 × 10.00
0.50
wind_shift_6h_grounder0.00 × 0.00
0.00
amplifier bonusvetoes / amplifiers
+0.50

final

raw 8.218.71

estimated ablations

tap to apply

Estimated single-factor counterfactuals against tomorrow’s live report. Numbers below each tile are the synthetic final and its delta vs the live model.

historical analogs

nearest by final score

tomorrow

2026-05-04Δ 0.23
SSW 14mph0h / 0.0mm92%
8.94no survey
2026-05-11Δ 0.29
SSW 4mph0h / 0.0mm32%
8.42no survey
2026-05-03Δ 0.36
SW 9mph0h / 0.0mm96%
8.35no survey

7-factor profile sparklines, left-to-right: migration, wind, precip, ebird, phenology, pressure, time-window. Tomorrow at top in muted.