How tomorrow’s score gets built and what happens if you slide the dials. Final score = sum of (weight × factor score), plus amplifier bonuses, capped at 10.
loading tomorrow’s factor scores…
Pearson r = +0.707 over 79 surveyed days. Regression slope = 10.49 species per +1.0 final. 38days landed above the line — the model under-rated them.
migration_intensity
BirdCast nightly migration density over Cuyahoga. Higher means more birds aloft last night.
wind_regime
Overnight and dawn wind direction and speed. S/SW tailwinds with a morning shift produce grounding events.
precipitation_pattern
Dawn precip probability and overnight rain. Light rain or a passing front concentrates birds.
ebird_recent_activity
Recent eBird reports at the hotspot. Confirms birds are present, not just predicted.
seasonal_phenology
Calendar weight for the species peaking now. Peak warbler weeks score 10, off-season ~2.
barometric_pressure_trend
Falling pressure means an approaching front and grounding. Rising means clear conditions and less drop-down.
time_window_quality
Sunrise and civil twilight quality. Daylight overlap with the productive dawn-chorus window.
explorer
target date 2026-07-05 · weight tweaks stay in this browser
original final
4.54raw 4.04 · amp +0.50
new final (no change)
4.54raw 4.04 · Σweights 1.00
contribution waterfall · weight × score
Estimated single-factor counterfactuals against tomorrow’s live report. Numbers are the synthetic final and its delta vs the live model.